Futures of Europeans

International Conference
April, 13-14, 2005
Aula Magna
University of Louvain-la-Neuve
Wallonia, Belgium

http://www.wallonie-en-ligne.net/2005_EuMPI/index.htm

Programme and Proceedings

The conference aims to answer the following questions:

- What unique challenges does the knowledge society present to Europe?
- How can futures studies help create effective strategies to meet those challenges?
- How can futures studies contribute to strategies for success for European companies and private sector organisations?
- How can futures studies assist Europeans in clarifying their change issues with regard to the key challenges facing the world as a whole?

WFS Futures Research Quarterly
"Futures research encompasses both an evolving philosophy and a range of techniques (Mental and material - A.P). Its primary objective is to assist decision-makers to understand better the potential consequences of present and future decisions by developing images of alternative futures."1

evolving philosophy and a range of techniques
developing images of alternative futures
decisions
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Professor Robert S. Houghton
"The term community applies to a community of one (the community of interacting thoughts in one's own head) and to the communities of larger numbers of interacting people (within a classroom, work team, or state or nation, etc.)."2

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Jerom C. Glenn and Theodore J. Gordon
The enclosed CD of over 3.000 pages contains the cumulative work of the Millennium
Project since 1996 and details of the studies included in this print section.
http://www.acunu.org/millennium/sof2004.html
Table of Contents
Print Section
CD-ROM Section

"The insights in this year's State of the Future can help decisionmakers and educators who work to counter hopeless despair, blind confidence, and ignorant indifference-attitudes that too often have blocked efforts to improve the prospects for humanity. Last year's edition began with the statement:

After seven years of accumulative global futures research by the Millennium Project, it has become increasingly clear that humanity has the resources to address its global challenges; what is less clear is how much wisdom, good will, and intelligence will be focused on these challenges."(...)

"On what basis should the world's resources
be allocated on behalf of humanity? The State
of the Future Index is a tool in development
to help answer that question. It is a statistical
combination of key indicators and forecasts
related to 15 Global Challenges as a whole that
assesses whether the future is improving or
getting worse over the next 10 years. It integrates
expert judgments from around the world
to answer in quantitative terms which issues
deserve attention to diminish risk or improve
the future."

From August 2003 to July 2004, the Millennium Project engaged in a Delphi study that had several distinct objectives:
1. Updating the 15 challenges being tracked by the Project and listing measures that could be used to determine that the challenges had been met.
2. Projecting the best and worst plausible future values for the socioeconomic variables included in the Project’s previous work associated with measures of the State of the Future Index (SOFI)
3. Identifying and evaluating future developments that could influence the course of the SOFI variables.

These objectives were pursued in two rounds of questionnaires.
the 15 Global Challenges are identified and discussed:
1. How can sustainable development be achieved for all?
2. How can everyone have sufficient clean water without conflict?
3. How can population growth and resources be brought into balance?
4. How can genuine democracy emerge from authoritarian regimes?
5. How can policymaking be made more sensitive to global long-term perspectives?
6. How can the global convergence of information and communications technologies work for everyone?
7. How can ethical market economies be encouraged to help reduce the gap between rich and poor?
8. How can the threat of new and reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms be reduced?
9. How can the capacity to decide be improved as the nature of work and
institutions change?
10. How can shared values and new security strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of weapons of mass destruction?
11. How can the changing status of women help improve the human condition?
12. How can transnational organized crime networks be stopped from becoming more powerful and sophisticated global enterprises?
13. How can growing energy demands be met safely and efficiently?
14. How can scientific and technological breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?
15. How can ethical considerations become more routinely incorporated into global decisions?
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April 13
The Futures of Europe, Keynote speaker
Jerome C. Glenn, Director of the Millennium Project (Washington)

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available online Ten Years Hence 15 Global Challenges and the Implications for Business

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For the Forward Studies Unit (Latvia), Handbook of Knowledge Society Foresight provides the basis of "new thinking and learning systems" issues



Source: Euforia project, European Knowledge Society Foresight - a Handbook of Methodology http://les.man.ac.uk/PREST/euforia/presentations/brussels_handbook.ppt
Reports
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April 13,
Futures Research and Foresight Methods
Christian Svanfeldt, European Commission, DG Research, Directorate K, Unit Science and Technology Foresight (Brussels)
Blueprints
for Foresight Actions
in the Regions


UPGRADE Foresight strategy and actions to assist regions of traditional industry towards a more knowledge-based community (pdf format) Building the Future on Knowledge, Dissemination conference, Brussels, September 23, 2004

We recognise six essential elements in any foresight
exercise - whatever its scale (ie, single issue,
industry sector, territorial programme) – that
every foresight planner should take into account:
Element (A) Securing commitment and clarity
Element (B) Gathering knowledge and resources
Element (C) Applying foresight methodologies
Element (D) Designing practical applications
Element (E) Managing the regional programme

FOR THE FORESIGHT PLANNER


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After the presentation, serious discussions on attitude (positive or often non-supportive) of National Governments to Futures, Foresight research and their outcomes in Europe, New Member States of the EU, and in Russia.

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April 14,
Third Plenary Session : The Future Governance of the European Sciences

Keynote Speaker
Philippe Busquin, former EU Commissioner for Research and President of the Scientific Technology Options Assessment (STOA) of the European Parliament. CORDIS News

Europe must work on developing scientific governance at EU level and must also become a key player in developing governance at global level

"We are facing a huge problem in our aim to achieve the Lisbon goal and that is that not enough people are producing knowledge"

"Each country, each region must develop the debate. Europe must reconcile itself with knowledge"

In the EU, on average, only ten per cent of SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises) have regular contact with centres of knowledge creation.

The EP, Governments, mass-media, citizens are not involved in the necessary dialogue on science, research and knowledge economy.

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Knowledge Board EC supported project

Knowledge management in Latvia
Central Eastern Europe

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about the Forward Studies Unit (Latvia) experience and problems integrating knowledge management, futures, and foresight research and activities in 2003 - 2005 conversations and comments on Knowledge Board

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Maria João Rodrigues, Chair of the Social Sciences Advisory Group for the European Commission, Professor at ICSTE University Institute (Lisbon)

The EU, and individual Member States should put the emphasis on investment in knowledge to ensure the economic dynamism and the vigour of the whole European economy. The realisation of a knowledge society, based upon human capital, education, research and innovation policies, is key to boost growth potential and better prepare the future. A sustainable growth requires greater demographic dynamism, improved social integration, understanding and commitment.

INTEGRATED GUIDELINES FOR GROWTH AND JOBS (2005-2008) provide the Community and the Member States with a framework which makes it possible to implement priority measures approved by the European Council. They will serve as a basis for drawing up the national reform programmes which the Member States are asked to present in the autumn of 2005.

Foresight for the new phase of the Lisbon process, and National Action Plans.
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"The question raised in the early 1990s – do we widen or deepen Europe – no longer arises. Together, we are building a strong Union in order to make a bigger success of the European project."

"We must strive for an open Europe, a Europe of dialogue. In each of the 25 countries work has begun on explaining and educating the public. This task is being pursued. It is by establishing a culture of dialogue and openness that we can improve ourselves. But it is also very true that we are still getting to know each other, getting to grips with the new realities of our Community. And that will take time. We must be patient and give ourselves the time to learn about and get to know each other.

Nor should we forget that expansion to 25 members has prompted questions about the EU’s identity, its borders and how it should function in future." José Manuel Barroso, 29 April 2005

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April 14
Networking the future – Think-tanks and the building of an European Knowledge Platform

Our Forward Studies' Knowledge platform is evolving from that the Lisbon strategy suggests to develop and apply New Mindset in the Web-enabled European and Global systems and communities - to apply the New Mindset evolving more amd more (e.g. for new and better jobs etc.).

Foresight thinking, understanding, researching and application - that is one of most important components of New Knowledge (mindset) Systems, but, only one of them, interacting and overlapping with such knowledge domains as Intangible values, Sustainable development, Entrepreneurship, Innovation, Knowledge management, Language challenge, Political leadership role.
Lisbon and Latvia

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April 14, Closing Plenary Session

Patrice Laget, Head of the SERA Unit (Support to the ERA) - Institute for Prospective Technological Studies - IPTS (Sevilla) Contribution of JRC-IPTS to the structuring of Foresight capabilities

Use of Foresight to support (RTDI) policy formulation

The FOR-LEARN project is carried out by DG JRC-IPTS on behalf of European Commission DG Research. The aim of FOR-LEARN is to support mutual learning among foresight managers, practitioners, users and stakeholders in Europe
It is part of one of the core activities on Foresight carried out by the European Commission under the Sixth Framework Programme which is to establish a European Foresight Knowledge Sharing Platform (KSP). The KSP is implemented by DG Research and aims at better interconnecting and supporting foresight programmes, initiatives and institutions in close co-operation with all relevant actors in Europe.

Activities
Develop an Online Foresight Guide
Set-up a system to support Foresight practitioners
Organise events to share and consolidate the Foresight knowledge base

JRC-IPTS contributes to the structuring of Foresight capabilities through:
Supports codification of knowledge, learning, knowledge sharing Foresight
Supports the creation of a knowledge base on FTA (Future-oriented technology analyses)
Analysis on the evolution of methodologies and processes

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The FORESIGHT MONITORING NETWORK (EFMN) is one of a coordinated series of initiatives by the European Commission to support the professional development of foresight practitioners in Europe called the FORESIGHT KNOWLEDGE SHARING PLATFORM.

EFMN provides support to policy professionals by monitoring and analyzing foresight activities across the European Union, its neighbours and the world.
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The European Techno-Economic Policy Support Network (ETEPS)

The purposes of ETEPS are (1) to do scientific research on the interdependencies between science, technology, economy and society, with a focus on foresight and evaluation; (2) to develop and use scientific models, data and other related tools to improve the scientific understanding of European Science & Technology related policy issues; (3) to take appropriate actions to disseminate the knowledge thus gained.

For these purposes, ETEPS shall through its members’ staff execute projects, organise conferences and seminars and publish the relevant scientific results of its research. It shall also promote and facilitate collaborative action to fulfil these purposes.

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April 14
Round Table
Theodius Lennon, Director Social Sciences and Humanities, Foresight, EC - DG Research (Brussels)




Peter Mettler, Professor of Societal Sciences, Wies­baden University of Applied Sciences & University of Frankfurt/Maine (Wiesbaden)

Call for founding members of the EUROFUTURES:
European Futures Research Federation (EFRF) - in May 2006
(Presently, Coordinator Peter H. Mettler)

The proposed work:
To act as an information and communication platform for European Futures studies;
To promote European identities (European Civil Society empowers the Lisbon vision);
European creativity and innovation in all fields, science and technology in particular;
Europe's future relationship with US and the other "world players"; Europe's role in a globalised world / in the global knowledge society;
Methodological innovations.

Exchange of Foresight specialists, practitioners is needed in Europe.

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Strategic conversation / Web-enabled strategic conversation - one of best methods of the Foresight exercises

April 14, Closing Plenary Session
John S. Ratcliffe, Director of the Faculty of the Built Environment, Dublin Institute of Technology (Dublin), on the future of Ireland

Conversations occur between equals (David Gurteen, Knowledge Board)
Attention
Motivation
Goals
Strategies
Skills
Knowledge language
Systems thinking

Web-enabled personal knowledge management → building a cross-institutional strategic thinking capacity → strategic development → strategic planning and actions
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http://www.wallonie-en-ligne.net/2005_EuMPI/Actes/003_Glenn_Jerome_files/frame.htm
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